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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still