Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves have scored 10 fewer goals from open-play situations compared to this point the previous campaign.

A major talking point of the EPL season so far has been the reduction of scoring in open play and how clubs have been scoring increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we see a drop of 39 scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less altogether.

Considering the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage last season.

And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen a mere two extra attempts created from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the efficiency clubs are at finding ways to net from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Reveal the Tale

301 total goals recorded in 110 matches so far works out at 2.74 scores per game, if maintained for all 38 games might be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely under 200 goals scored in open-play translates to 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the least for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign is also the unique EPL campaign to witness scoring more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).

Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have recorded the largest drop, netting just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than this point last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with five of the London's seven clubs scoring five or more less scores from open play than last season.

In fairness, this is mainly because their scoring numerous scores at the start of last season instead of their genuine struggle to find the net in open play this campaign.

At the same time City have experienced the largest rise, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared clubs that came up with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off winners Sunderland have scored three extra goals in open-play than the Saints did in matchday 11 leading to relegation last season.

In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with both sides making up for the five less goals that they've scored in open play with the same number from set-pieces.

Man United have netted double the number goals from set-plays as they did in matchday 11 last season ahead of the manager assumed control, while the Black Cats once more are better at converting than the club they replaced that went down.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, as they've recorded three less than last season, like Forest, though this may result from the tactical shift they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – have been the current campaign's top trend-setters by recording fewer scores from open play and more from set-plays, while City represent the only side to defy the pattern so far by achieving the exact opposite.

It remains to be seen to watch if teams continue to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they find again their general attacking flair and start converting additional scores in open play as well.

Veronica Harvey
Veronica Harvey

A seasoned casino analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine mechanics and online gaming strategies.

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